On July 1, Shanghai copper closed up 1.63 per cent at 49350 yuan, a six-month high and approaching the 50000 integer mark. Measure the copper price of the macroeconomic barometer, how does the market go? And look at the institutional point of view:

CIC futures research report pointed out that the Fed meeting did not continue to increase monetary easing policy, so that the early because of the abundant liquidity and the rise of risk assets are facing adjustment pressure. Consumer side, into June downstream overall orders fell significantly, the early performance of eye-catching copper rod has also been weak. Infrastructure, real estate rush to promote the recent in stock side performance is better, demand stable inventory de-stocking, demand-side support is still in place. Overall, there is support for fundamentals, but copper prices are still dominated by macro pricing, focusing on overseas outbreaks. Short-term copper prices are expected to show a high shock adjustment.

Changan Futures believes that copper prices continued their upward trend in June. In addition to the fundamentals, the loose macro environment also provided strong support. After the market, the outbreak in South America is more serious, the ore side of the supply is expected to be tight, the growth rate of refined copper output is expected to slow down, domestic inventories are at a low level. Demand has weakened and copper replacement has increased. The macro environment is slightly neutral, and the overall situation is in the contradiction between economic recovery and the second outbreak of the epidemic. In the absence of obvious negative background, copper prices or there is still room for upside.

On the whole, as copper prices reach pre-year levels, continued rise needs to be driven by stronger profits. At present, there are no obvious negative factors, copper prices or strong operation, even if there is an adjustment, the range is expected to be limited, the previous multi-order can continue to hold, not open positions waiting for the opportunity to call back.

Jinyuan Futures said that this week, copper prices continued to continue the upward trend before the holiday, prices continue to hit new highs, the second quarter rose to a new high in nearly a decade. Despite the previous rebound in the U.S. neo-crown epidemic, the rise in copper prices has not been greatly affected, which means that the impact of the neo-crown on copper prices has largely subsided. And the market had been worried about the decline in off-season consumption may be a drag on copper prices, so far has not materialized. In the release of domestic official PMI data again exceeded market expectations, reflecting the current market is still in a good state of recovery. At the same time, the new rules for recycled copper have not yet been implemented, which also means that the domestic copper scrap supply will still be at a low level in the third quarter, and the market supply is not optimistic. Combined with the current continued decline in copper inventories, we believe that the rise in copper prices is not over yet. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the market, short-term adjustment does not hinder the medium-and long-term upward pattern.

Cinda futures analysis pointed out that the recent concerns about the outbreak in Chile, once again raised concerns in the copper concentrate market, continue to pressure domestic TC processing fees, to promote copper prices to maintain a strong trend, Lun copper after all, 6000 dollar integer mark. Domestically, the off-season fell to but continued to go to the warehouse, and the overall inventory level remained at a historical low level. In addition, due to the limited increase in supply due to low processing fees, the follow-up may show a certain weak situation of supply and demand. However, low inventory and strong in stock bureau fabrics will continue to be maintained, and it is also a high probability that there will be a certain capital-driven rise in the disk phase. In addition, macro funds, the global market big water, and the resumption of work is expected to continue to speculation, the high financial properties of copper prices, but also to promote the role. On the whole, low inventories and strong in stock still support copper prices, while macro funds and other aspects of the positive will continue to reflect, copper prices are expected to continue to maintain a strong trend of volatility, the operation of more ideas to treat.

According to Baocheng Futures analysis, at the end of June, the global copper market performed strongly. Among them, the LME three-month copper price rose above the $6000/ton mark on June 26. Like other risk assets, there has been a "V" since April. "Shaped reversal. In terms of copper price trends, we believe that speculative demand triggered by the flood of liquidity at the macro level and the micro-level epidemic resonated with copper output disruptions, causing copper prices to rebound beyond expectations. However, looking ahead, the supply-side disruptions and investment demand from liquidity spillovers from the epidemic have kept copper prices firm in the short term, but are about to enter a bubble-squeezing adjustment because of the second outbreak of the epidemic, the decline in the slope of economic recovery, copper demand is weakening, and supply-side disruptions are only short-term. However, the copper market squeeze bubble also need to wait for the emergence of liquidity and inventory inflection point.

Guoxin Futures believes that the recent global major asset prices are also facing the risk of economic depression caused by the intensification of the global epidemic outbreak, as well as the stimulus of liquidity easing and rising inflation brought about by the global central bank's wide monetary and credit easing. Among them, the strength of equity and cyclical assets such as stock market and commodities is differentiated, and the high risk behind some varieties of record highs is increasing. At present, the non-ferrous industry is in the trend of weakening of medium and long-term supply and long-term supply and long-term, however, short-term supply disturbances in South America and domestic low inventory support in stock, considering loose short-term liquidity, low industrial tradable inventory and high risk of warehouse crowding in recent months, it is recommended that customers control the scale of unilateral exposure during the rebound process and guard against short-term high-level two-way fluctuations. Industrial customers use virtual inventory and hedging transactions to flexibly adjust exposure risks. Copper cross-period structure is dominated by positive hedging and aluminum cross-market structure is dominated by positive hedging.

Huatai Futures said that in the medium term, on the macro side, the current global low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy are still likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities. Fundamentally, there are not many projects to increase copper mine production in 2020 on the raw material side, copper concentrate long association TC, imported crude copper long single Benchmark are down sharply compared to 2019, raw material supply relative to smelting capacity tensions still exist. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper and copper imports expanded significantly, and the domestic refined copper and copper production increased significantly. This is related to the increase in power grid investment in the second half of the year and the marginal improvement in products such as automobiles and air conditioners. It is also partly based on the market's good expectations of infrastructure increase in 2020 and the improvement of post-real estate cycle consumption. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the State Grid has set its 2020 grid investment plan at 408 billion yuan, which is expected to be 8.8 percent lower than the 2019 450 billion, and the sharp reduction in grid investment will have an impact on copper consumption. In addition, it should be noted that in the current copper prices show a strong trend or will stimulate the acceleration of new capacity or even more than expected cash, which may also form a pressure on copper prices from the supply side.