July 25, it is said that China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association regeneration branch has been informed that the end of next year, including waste metal waste, waste motor motor, bulk waste hardware will prohibit imports, the so-called waste 7 class. At the same time, foreign media have also reported that the Chinese government is preparing to prohibit the import of copper scrap metal news.
Or by this stimulus, copper prices rose sharply.
July 26, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Antaike and other institutions to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association regeneration branch confirmed that before the end of 2018 will ban the import of seven categories of waste. Waste seven categories of hardware can be recycled copper recovery.
In the news led, LME benchmark 3-month copper rose 2.6 percent to 6400 US dollars / ton, hit a new high in May 2015. Following Tuesday's soaring 3.3%, copper prices rose for four consecutive days.
While the Shanghai copper 1709 contract futures prices have been further pushed up, once intraday soared 5%, as of closing 50040 yuan / ton, or up to 3.75%.
News has long been leaked
Last week, China formally proposed to the WTO will ban four types of 24 kinds of solid waste imports, including the source of waste plastics, vanadium slag, unclassified waste paper and waste textiles. Yesterday there was news Crazy in the market: the end of 2018 ban on the import of waste hardware, including waste wire, waste motor motor, bulk waste hardware, the so-called waste seven categories.
Previously, the ban on the seventh category of waste copper import news, the market has been rumored in February more than. July 26, according to Shanghai non-ferrous metal industry analyst Ye Jianhua said, with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association regeneration branch verification, the news is true.
According to reports, the main flow of copper for the smelting side of the production of coarse copper / anode plate / electrolytic copper, the downstream production of copper rods, copper, copper rods and so on.
Can be estimated: 2016 China's imports of scrap copper total amount of about 1.2 million tons, 2017 is expected to 1.2 million metal tons, of which seven categories of materials accounted for 60% -70%, a direct impact on imports of about 75-90 million Ton. Analysts in Shanghai in May to visit the Guangdong region dismantling enterprises found that the approval of the government has begun to become strict, the old enterprises that this year began to delay the import approval issued, some corporate environmental approval or even canceled, or no longer updated and so on.
How much impact in the end
Shanghai non-ferrous information analysis, said the end of next year seven kinds of material imports of the abolition of the emotional impact is far greater than the actual, including the rise of copper prices, more only played a fueled effect:
1, from the current known policy implementation time for the end of next year, there are still a year and a half of the time, these prohibited seven kinds of materials will not be converted into six categories of materials transported to China, and in recent years, seven categories of materials to Southeast Asia The market and then output to China's volume is on the rise, the conversion rate worthy of attention. Assuming that it is not to be transported to China, but also to become part of the supply of overseas raw materials.
2, the Chinese market has gradually entered the cycle of waste copper recovery, urban mineral park has also approved a 50 to China in the demand for scrap copper, the domestic supply has exceeded the demand for imports, the future will gradually reduce the amount of The need for overseas.
Multiple factor interference
News side, the supply side of the frequent interference, Canada B.C. province fire, resulting in two copper mine operations affected. The president of the Philippines said that if the mining industry caused damage to the environment will be charged to the owners of high taxes can not bear, hoping to stop the export of mineral resources and may completely shut down mining. The Philippines is not only the largest supplier of nickel ore, but also one of the main producers of copper.
Environmental protection, the amount of scrap copper imports and the proportion of scrap consumption will be reduced. Vale second quarter copper production of 10.08 million tons, down 4.6%. BHP Billiton's second-quarter copper production fell 6% year-on-year. LME copper stocks continued to fall in June China's imports of copper significantly reduced. Multiple interest factors intertwined, to promote copper prices soared.
The Citi report notes that the copper market is in high spirits as Chinese manufacturers are increasing copper inventories.
Of course, the dollar continued to depreciate, but also the recent strong performance of copper a major factor. The dollar index is now below the 94 mark, close to 13 months low, which makes the dollar-denominated LME copper is cheaper.